FG Moves to Harmonise Economic Projections, Sets Up Inter-Agency Committee

The Federal Government has moved to end conflicting economic projections among Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) with the establishment of a high-powered inter-agency committee to harmonise the macroeconomic assumptions used for budgeting and economic planning.

The decision was reached at Monday’s meeting of the Economic Management Team (EMT), chaired by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, in Abuja.

The committee will work to align key assumptions, including crude oil price and production benchmarks, exchange rate, inflation and non-oil revenue projections used by fiscal and monetary authorities.

According to a statement issued by the Ministry of Finance, the move followed findings from a joint budget retreat and technical validation workshop, which identified inconsistent macroeconomic assumptions among government institutions as one of the factors contributing to budget under-performance.

The committee is also expected to address discrepancies in the reporting of economic indicators within government and in official communications to investors, development partners and the public.

The EMT approved an expanded governance framework that will include regular reviews of macroeconomic performance, stronger fiscal and monetary policy coordination, monitoring of the Renewed Hope Agenda and periodic assessments of the Federal Government’s financing requirements.

Under the new arrangement, the EMT will meet monthly rather than periodically, while the Federal Ministry of Finance will serve as the coordinating custodian of Nigeria’s official economic data.

Relevant government agencies will continue to provide sector-specific information, which will be harmonised before official public releases.

The team expressed optimism about the country’s economic performance, citing a reported 4.43 per cent year-on-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2026, which it described as the strongest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2024.

It also noted that Nigeria’s external reserves had risen above $54 billion, while the naira had appreciated to the N1,300-to-a-dollar range, which the team described as its strongest level in about two years.

The EMT further highlighted Nigeria’s scheduled return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index from September 21, 2026, describing the development as a boost to investor confidence and the international visibility of the country’s capital market.

The team said Nigeria’s public debt remained below 40 per cent of GDP and noted that Moody’s had recently upgraded the country’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive.

Agriculture was also a major focus of the meeting, with the EMT reviewing strategies to position the sector as a key driver of the Federal Government’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030.

The strategy includes reducing post-harvest losses, expanding mechanisation and agro-processing, improving export compliance, recapitalising the Bank of Agriculture and creating a new credit window for smallholder farmers.

The government also plans to increase agriculture’s share of private-sector credit to 10 per cent by 2030.

The EMT reviewed preparations for Nigeria’s hosting of the Creative Africa Nexus (CANEX) 2026 and the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) 2027 in Lagos.

It directed the Ministry of Finance to coordinate funding and customs facilitation for the events in collaboration with the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment.

Oyedele said the decisions were aimed at ensuring that the economic assumptions used in planning were better aligned with actual economic outcomes.

“Today’s decisions tighten the link between the numbers we plan with and the actual outturns. A single, harmonised set of assumptions across the fiscal and monetary authorities means fewer surprises in the budget and more credible planning for investors and all Nigerians,” he said.