15 Leading Contenders for the Papacy as Conclave Approaches

With no formal campaigning, no public list of candidates, and the entire election process shrouded in secrecy, speculation over who will succeed Pope Francis is intensifying as the conclave approaches.

Nonetheless, several cardinals, known in Vatican circles as papabili, are quietly emerging as potential frontrunners. Here are 15 names widely regarded as serious contenders, grouped by region.

From Europe, Italy’s Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican Secretary of State for the majority of Pope Francis’s papacy, is currently viewed as the leading candidate. Calm, multilingual, and adept in ecclesiastical diplomacy, Parolin played a central role in the Vatican’s contentious 2018 accord with China on episcopal appointments. Another Italian, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, heads the Catholic Church in the Middle East and has been vocal in advocating peace amid the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Matteo Maria Zuppi, 69, Archbishop of Bologna, is highly respected for his peace-building efforts in Ukraine and his humanitarian initiatives. Claudio Gugerotti, 69, a seasoned diplomat and expert on the Eastern Churches, remains a discreet yet influential presence in Church affairs. France’s Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, Archbishop of Marseille, is noted for championing interreligious dialogue and the rights of migrants, while Sweden’s Anders Arborelius, 75, the country’s first cardinal since the Reformation, advocates both Church tradition and inclusive outreach to migrants.

Malta’s Mario Grech, 68, former Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, is considered a potential consensus candidate for his balanced approach between progressive and conservative factions. Hungary’s Peter Erdo, 72, a conservative canon law scholar, is known for his theological depth and previous connections to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government. Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Hollerich, 66, a Jesuit and former missionary in Japan, is a strong voice on environmental stewardship and youth engagement.

In Asia, Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, a charismatic Filipino cardinal, remains a popular figure with his advocacy for the poor and migrant communities. Charles Maung Bo, 76, the first cardinal from Myanmar, has consistently spoken out for the persecuted Rohingya population and has urged peaceful resistance following the country’s military coup.

From Africa, Ghana’s Peter Turkson, 76, frequently mentioned as a potential first Black pope, is known for his work on human rights, migration, and his efforts to bridge traditional and progressive views. Guinea’s Robert Sarah, 79, a staunch conservative critical of Church reforms on issues such as same-sex blessings and female deacons, retains strong support among traditionalists but is viewed as too hardline by many. Meanwhile, Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, from the Democratic Republic of Congo and a key adviser to Pope Francis, represents a firm conservative voice and remains a serious contender.

In America, Robert Francis Prevost, 69, an American heading the Dicastery for Bishops, brings extensive missionary experience in Latin America and is considered a capable administrator. Also from the United States, Archbishop Timothy Dolan of New York, 75, is well known for his affable demeanour and steadfast theological positions. Though conservative, Dolan has made efforts to engage with New York’s growing Hispanic Catholic population amid declining Church attendance.

As anticipation mounts, these names are expected to dominate discussions in Rome and beyond as the Church prepares to choose its next spiritual leader.